The platform's contribution
- Connecting disruption, supply and cost within a common assessment framework.
- Organising scenarios and alternatives with explicit assumptions.
- Distinguishing evidence, uncertainty and points requiring verification.
Methodology
Platform in development
The analysis behind the decision.
The AEGIS methodology connects maritime disruption with supply exposure, sourcing alternatives and cost drivers. It organises sources, assumptions and scenarios into a coherent framework so that each option can be examined and its rationale explained.
Methodology
A question becomes a structured review.
Five stages connect the commercial question with a comparative review of scenarios and options.
Identify disruption.
Define the event and commercial question.
Map supply exposure.
Examine requirements, timing and potential exposure.
Examine alternatives.
Consider options and their main constraints.
Analyse commercial implications.
Connect assumptions with freight and delivered cost.
Evidence-informed review.
Bring together reasoning, sources and uncertainty for the team's decision.
Hypothetical methodology scenario
Hypothetical petroleum-product transport scenario via the Red Sea.
One disruption. Multiple implications. Connected analysis.
A systems perspective connects changes in maritime routes with supply, alternatives and cost, bringing interactions and time delays into view.
An example of the methodology, using hypothetical assumptions and a qualitative review of implications.
Maritime disruption → Route and voyage time → Cargo arrival timing → Inventories and supply cover → Sourcing alternatives
Route and voyage time → Tanker availability and freight → Delivered cost → Sourcing alternatives
When supply cover tightens, additional sourcing options are assessed. Once a feasible option is implemented, new arrivals can replenish inventories and ease supply pressure after the required delivery lead time.
Systems thinking and the dynamics of interaction
Interdependencies, feedback and time delays add depth to comparative assessment. Systems thinking and System Dynamics provide a foundation for examining how a change affects the wider system over time.
A clear basis for each assessment.
The methodology examines each source's provenance, reference date, relevance and usage rights. Assumptions and items requiring verification remain distinct throughout the assessment.
- Evidence required
- What a team would need to check: source, rights, date and relevance.
- Working assumption
- A stated premise to examine. It is not an established fact or a prediction.
- Unknown or not verified
- A visible gap. Missing information remains unknown; it is never treated as zero.
- Human review
- People examine the evidence and constraints before making a decision.
EVIDENCE AND JUDGMENT
Deeper analysis. Evidence-informed decisions.
The value for your team
- A clearer view of commercial exposure and priorities.
- A comparable basis for discussing alternatives and key trade-offs.
- A final choice made by your team, with its supporting rationale visible.
Richer context. More meaningful analysis.
The platform is in development. This presentation uses illustrative scenarios to explain the approach. Commercial-source activation and operational use are subsequent steps, subject to the relevant agreements and checks.
Contact
Start with your commercial priorities.
Discuss a supply, maritime disruption or cost question with us and explore how the AEGIS approach could apply to your business.
Discuss your needs
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